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Alternatively, perhaps the skill is represented as a percentage chance. So if a player has 70% accuracy and the difficulty of the hole is high, the chance is low.

if wind_direction == 'tailwind': wind_effect = wind_strength elif wind_direction == 'headwind': wind_effect = -wind_strength else: # crosswind doesn't affect distance in this model wind_effect = 0

In this example, the chance is higher if the club power is closer to the effective distance, and adjusted by accuracy and skill bonus.